Demand for home ownership in Catalonia will double supply in 2025

The "Housing and Future" business chair at Pompeu Fabra University, headed by the TecnoCampus professor Joseph Maria Raya, and the Association of Developers of Catalonia (APCE) has presented the monograph "Estimation of the solvent demand for new housing in Catalonia and its provinces", prepared by the working team of the chair formed by Catalina Llaneza Hesse, Josep Maria Raya and Jaume Garcia Villar, linked to the Department of Economics and Business at UPF.

The document focuses onanalysis of the effective demand for home ownership in Catalonia segmented by province until 2025, to study its evolution in recent years and work with different scenarios, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. The study focuses on the analysis of the actual demand for home ownership in Catalonia segmented by province until 2025, to study its evolution in recent years and work with different scenarios. The study took place on the morning of May 12, at the headquarters of the TecnoCampus in Mataró, by UPF professor Josep Maria Raya, coordinator of the work team and director of the Chair of Housing and the Future, accompanied by the President of the APCE, Xavier Vilajoana, and the General Manager of the TecnoCampus Mataró-Maresme Foundation, Josep Lluís Checa. 

The monograph makes one estimating the potential demand for primary housing based on the scenarios for the creation of new homes estimated by Idescat for the period 2021-2025. Thus, different scenarios can be observed that refer to the projection of households for Catalonia in 2025, broken down by province. On the one hand, lmost optimistic scenario (high scenario) estimates a rate of creation of new homes between 2021 and 2025 of 7,85%, which is equivalent to 237,85 thousand new homes in Catalonia. On the other hand, the most pessimistic scenario (population decline), estimates a growth in Catalonia in the same period of 89,04 thousand households. If the data are analyzed at the provincial level, it is observed that, regardless of the scenario, Barcelona, ​​Girona and Tarragona would experience a growth in households that would be between 74,67 and 178,51 thousand in Barcelona, ​​between 12,18 , 30,32 and 5,16 thousand in Girona and between 24,15 and 3 thousand in Tarragona. For its part, Lleida records a negative estimate in the most pessimistic scenario, with a fall of approximately 4,87 thousand households, while in the most optimistic scenario it would grow by XNUMX thousand households.

The personal preferences of the population in terms of housing have evolved over the years, adapting to the existing economic situation in each era. Thus, 70 years ago, rental housing accounted for half of the market, a percentage that has been declining over the years due to various issues such as the constant public policies designed to promote home ownership to the detriment of the private and public rental housing.

Barcelona is the province that requires the most supply, with 61,52 thousand homes, followed by Girona and Tarragona, with a potential demand of 10,77 thousand and 8,97 thousand respectively. On the other hand, in the case of Lleida the projection is much lower, with an estimate of 1.520 units. In this sense, the new supply needed to cover the demand for 2025 in Catalonia would be approximately 80 new homes.

On the other hand, the monograph presents thelow population scenario, the most pessimistic, regarding the effective demand for home ownership for the same period. 

Thus, according to thelow population scenario, to meet the demand for housing for new homes for the year 2025 in Catalonia the supply of housing should increase by about 43 thousand units. In the case of Barcelona, ​​a housing demand of 36,58 thousand units is projected, followed by Girona, with about 6 thousand homes, and Tarragona, with 3 homes. In the case of Lleida, there is an estimated loss of 500 homes under ownership and, therefore, a negative demand for housing.

In short, if the middle scenario is assumed as the upper limit and the low population scenario as the lower limit, the effective demand for home ownership  a Catalonia by 2025 will have between 43 and 80 homes. In the case of Barcelona, the range will be from 37 to 62 thousand homes, a Girona will be from 6 to 11 thousand, a Tarragona from 3 to 9 thousand ia Lleida will increase by a maximum of 1,5 thousand homes. If to this is added the demand for investment or secondary housing, the total demand could be between 104 and 150 thousand homes in 2021-2025.

The current scenario is a production well below the demand for housing required by the population, as has been observed. In addition, in recent years, the construction of new homes in Catalonia has fluctuated around 11 thousand homes, which produces a tension in prices for new homes, as demand doubles the supply, therefore , prices soar. A situation that will be further aggravated by the current international context, with supply problems starting in the second half of 2021 and currently with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will only increase these costs.